ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up for the fifth straight week, up by 1pt to 105.6 in mid-October. However, Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.3 but is now 7.9 points higher than the same week a year ago, October 10/11, 2020 (97.7).
Consumer Confidence this week was up in Sydney as the 106 day lockdown finally came to an end. Consumer Confidence was also up in Brisbane and Adelaide, however down in Melbourne as the lockdown of that city is set to continue for another two weeks.
Driving this week’s small increase was increasing confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and more Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
27% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 26% (down 1ppt), who say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. 36% of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 14% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
It was the last week of lockdown for most consumers in NSW and we saw spending rise over the past fortnight. National spending is 12.6% higher than the corresponding week in 2019, which highly correlates to the announcement of easing restrictions on the 11th October, with the majority locking in services and activities ahead of the restrictions lifting.
In NSW, we have seen a rise in spending both in Metro and Regional areas on household furnishings, equipment, and transport. With stores opening their doors to the vaccinated population, we would expect to see a rise in in-store spending as well as a lift in spending on personal care and eating out. Over the past fortnight, the pace of spending growth picked up in NSW (+4%pts) to 7.9% above 2019 levels. It is running at its fastest pace since the week ending 3 July.
VIC spending has also lifted, now at 4.2% above 2019 levels. This is the strongest pace since the beginning of August when VIC was last out of lockdown. Although spends in the ACT have risen, the capital remains heavily affected by lockdowns, down 4.4% on 2019 levels. Spending in other states and territories remains robust.
Mobility data across the ESB capital cities is currently varying in nature.
Over the last week in Sydney, we’ve seen driving increase +6% on baseline. Whilst increased freedoms have arisen for the market, walking continues to be lower than average at -35% below the baseline statistics. Not surprisingly, Public Transport usage is significantly lower than baseline at -47%.
With Melbourne still battling the outbreak of COVID and tough restrictions, mobility data is shown significantly below the baseline. Driving and public transport usage in Melbourne is respectively down -54% and -86% on baseline. With mobility data around walking being -64%. It’s interesting to note that Melbourne haven’t seen any of these metrics hit positively above baseline since March this year.
From April, there has been a steady upward trend across Driving, Walking & Public Transport usage in Brisbane. Although of note, this is an upward trend from a negative starting point, with all 3 mobility metrics being between -60 & -80% below baseline. Currently driving in Brisbane is the only positive mobility metric, at +4% above baseline with walking and public transport down -31% and -40% respectively.
After a few key premieres and finales, the ratings this week are somewhat in flux compared to previous weeks. The Block continues to deliver as the highest viewed non-news program and is trending slightly upwards as we enter the 11th and final week of the season.
Another tentpole finale this week was SAS Australia, which ended its four week run with Sam Burgess emerging as the winner in a finale that drew 631k total viewers.
After severe panic that the much anticipated third season of Love Island Australia would be cancelled due to a COVID scare, the show did indeed launch on Monday, 11th October. So far, the show is seeing stronger viewership than in previous years, but is still sitting very low compared to other key programming at the moment (roughly 300k). An interesting point here is that Love Island is seeing stronger viewership within their key younger demos on 9Now than through linear broadcast.
The premiere of The Bachelorette with Brooke Blurton next week will also likely impact the landscape, with a heavy promotion and social response from fans showing an already engaged viewership base.
Source: Nielsen eTAM (Oct 2021)
The Latest GFK Radio Survey
Last week marked the release of Survey 6 from GfK. In Sydney and Melbourne, 2GB and 3AW continued to have the largest share of listening across all adults, but this continues to be largely focused on the older generation. Nova and KIIS continue their strength for younger generations.
DAB+ continues to grow. Survey 6 saw a 4% growth, on top of a 13% growth in survey 5.
Finally, the majority of listening is still throughout the working day. Unsurprisingly, given lockdowns, Breakfast and Drive were in slight decline.
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